Imagine pouring your heart and soul into a season, fighting tooth and nail, only to be told it's not enough. That's the feeling swirling around the Texas Longhorns right now, and head coach Steve Sarkisian is not happy about it. He believes denying his 9-3 team a College Football Playoff spot would be a flat-out "disservice" to the sport. But is he right, or is this just another case of end-of-season lobbying reaching fever pitch?
The College Football Playoff is the promised land for major programs. The rewards are immense: a flood of cash, a surge in recruiting prospects, and a massive boost to prestige. And let's be honest, in a tournament setting, a little bit of luck can go a long way. This is why coaches and programs pull out all the stops to plead their case for inclusion as the season winds down. It's predictable, it's understandable, and it's often filled with more than a little bit of exaggeration.
Remember Lane Kiffin last year? He practically begged for his 9-3 Ole Miss team to get in. And who can forget the SEC boosters pushing for a 9-3 South Carolina squad, a team that then promptly face-planted against Illinois in their bowl game? This year, the SEC's champion of near-misses seems to be the Texas Longhorns.
Sarkisian, fresh off a victory over Texas A&M, has been hitting the airwaves hard, making his case for the Longhorns. But some might argue that the narratives, the arguments, and yes, the whining, are reaching new levels of, shall we say, creative interpretation of reality.
Sarkisian's argument hinges on two key points: the perceived brutality of the SEC schedule and the Longhorns' 10-point victory over a currently undefeated, highly-ranked Texas A&M team. He stated, "That team is undefeated, No. 3 in the country... We just beat them by 10. If you really look at the body of work...the Southeastern Conference of what we have to go through every week...to go to Ohio State in Week 1 and lose by seven when we outgained them by nearly 200 yards—we got a really good football team."
But here's where it gets controversial... Sarkisian further argues that excluding Texas would punish them for scheduling a tough non-conference game against Ohio State. "It would be a disservice to our sport if this team is not a playoff team when we went and scheduled that non-conference game... So, is that what college football is about? Don’t play anybody and just have a good record, or play the best and put the best teams in the playoff. And, we’re one of the best teams."
The "disservice to our sport" line is certainly memorable. But does it hold water? Is Sarkisian's plea a legitimate argument, or just a carefully crafted PR campaign? He's banking on the emotional appeal, suggesting that children will weep if his team is left out. (Okay, maybe he didn't exactly say that, but the subtext is there!) But unfortunately for Sark, sentimentality doesn't always win out. There's actual data to consider.
Let's dive into the analytics. ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ ranking system, which evaluates teams based on offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency while adjusting for the quality of their opponents, paints a less rosy picture. According to SP+, Texas is ranked 22nd in the nation. Respectable, sure, but hardly "disservice to the sport" territory.
And this is the part most people miss... SP+ also evaluates a team's resume – their actual performance throughout the season. It compares each team's scoring margin (capped at 50 points) against what a top-five team would be expected to achieve against the same opponents. By this measure, the Longhorns' resume ranks 20th. So, based on SP+, Texas doesn't quite measure up, either in terms of projected future performance or past accomplishments.
Another respected metric, Brian Fremeau's FEI, ranks Texas 18th, just behind Iowa. FEI also assesses performance against the expected outcomes based on the schedule, placing Texas 16th, narrowly ahead of 9-3 USC. And remember, nobody is campaigning for USC! Interestingly, USC actually outranks Texas in both SP+ (17th) and resume strength (17th).
Beyond the numbers, there are some subjective factors working against the Longhorns. Their loss to 4-8 Florida, one of the weakest Power 4 teams, is a glaring blemish. Their narrow overtime victory against Kentucky and their struggles against Mississippi State don't exactly scream "Playoff Contender." Even in their win against Vanderbilt, they nearly choked away a huge lead, allowing 21 points in the fourth quarter.
Texas is a good team, loaded with talent, and likely among the top 15-20 programs in the country. But based on the objective and subjective evidence, their case for a playoff spot seems shaky at best. But the question remains: Will the SEC logo on their jerseys and Sarkisian's relentless campaigning sway the decision-makers?
So, what do you think? Is Steve Sarkisian right? Would excluding Texas be a "disservice" to college football? Or is this just another example of a coach trying to spin a less-than-perfect season into a playoff berth? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
